IDES OF MARCH:

ON THE LAST GREAT WAR™

MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA: WHY ENERGY WARS OFTEN TRIGGER POLITICAL CRISES IN AFRICA

Introduction

Energy conflicts in the Middle East have shaped international politics for decades. Oil and gas, far more than simple commodities, have become tools of geopolitical power. Africa, while rarely a direct participant in these conflicts, often bears the brunt of their consequences. Dependence on energy imports, fragile institutions, and external pressures make African countries particularly vulnerable to regional instability.

This article explores how Middle Eastern energy wars trigger political crises in Africa within six to eighteen months and examines how African nations can prepare to mitigate these effects.

1. The Energy Link Between the Middle East and Africa

The Middle East holds a disproportionate share of the world's oil and gas reserves. Even though Africa possesses its own energy resources—Nigeria, Angola, and Algeria among them—many countries remain dependent on global market stability. When conflict erupts in the Middle East, international prices soar, directly affecting African economies that rely heavily on fuel imports.

For instance, the Gulf War of the early 1990s caused a sudden spike in oil prices, triggering inflation and debt crises in several African states.

Even when production continues, the mere perception of geopolitical risk increases transport costs, insurance premiums, and logistical expenses. For African economies, this translates into higher energy prices, which ripple across every sector.

2. From Economic Shock to Political Crisis

a) Inflation and Social Unrest

Rising fuel prices hit urban populations immediately, increasing transportation and electricity costs. These pressures often spark protests, strikes, and other forms of civil unrest.

b) Institutional Fragility

Countries with weak governance and limited fiscal space face compounded challenges. Governments unable to respond effectively may experience political instability, sometimes leading to coups or sudden leadership changes.

c) Fiscal Stress and Subsidy Dependency

Many African states subsidize energy and food prices to buffer citizens against shocks. Persistent price increases render these subsidies unsustainable, straining budgets and accelerating fiscal deficits.

d) International Competition

External powers often exploit these crises to secure influence, offering energy deals or loans in exchange for political alignment, further complicating domestic governance.

3. The Secondary Wave: Food and Fertilizers

Energy shocks do not act in isolation. Months after a Middle Eastern conflict begins, rising fuel prices push up the cost of fertilizers and agricultural transport, inflating global food prices.

Africa’s dependence on food imports—due to rapid population growth, underindustrialized agriculture, and historical trade patterns—means that higher global prices create direct pressure on domestic markets. Governments face difficult choices: pass costs to consumers or maintain subsidies. Either path carries political risk.

Sustained high prices weaken fiscal capacity, increase debt, and reduce the quality of public services. International financial institutions may demand austerity measures, such as subsidy cuts or currency adjustments, intensifying social tension.

4. Case Studies

• South Sudan: Almost entirely dependent on oil revenues, price volatility exacerbates internal conflicts.

• Nigeria: A major producer but still vulnerable to global shocks; energy crises intensify social unrest.

• Ethiopia and Kenya: Import-dependent nations where rising global energy and food costs directly threaten political stability.

Historical patterns show that crises typically manifest six to eighteen months after the initial energy shock. The combination of high energy costs, inflation, and social unrest creates a tipping point for political instability.

5. Strategic Lessons for Africa

a) Diversification of Energy Sources

• Invest in renewables: solar, wind, and hydroelectric power.

• Reduce dependence on imported oil.

• Establish regional energy-sharing agreements.

b) Institutional Strengthening

• Promote transparency in energy revenue management.

• Implement fiscal reforms to lessen subsidy dependency.

• Encourage energy efficiency and conservation policies.

c) Regional Integration

• Develop a continental energy market under the African Union.

• Interconnect national grids to reduce vulnerabilities.

• Conduct collective negotiations with external powers to strengthen bargaining positions.

d) Balanced Geopolitics

• Maintain diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern producers, China, Europe, and the United States.

• Avoid exclusive dependence on a single bloc.

• Use energy diplomacy to prioritize domestic stability.

6. The Role of Youth and Civil Society

Preparation is not solely a government responsibility. Civil society must:

• Demand transparency in energy contracts.

• Support community-based renewable projects.

• Engage in public debates on energy security and sustainability.

Empowering local actors ensures resilience beyond political cycles and strengthens social cohesion in times of crisis.

7. Conclusion

Middle Eastern energy conflicts are likely to remain a persistent feature of the twenty-first century. Africa’s strategic location and economic vulnerability make it particularly exposed to their repercussions. Yet, these crises also present opportunities. By investing in clean energy, strengthening institutions, and fostering regional cooperation, African nations can reduce dependency and build political resilience.

The key lies in preparation before the next crisis, rather than reaction afterward. Structural transformation—energy autonomy, modernized agriculture, and resilient fiscal systems—offers the only sustainable path to breaking the cycle that links distant Middle Eastern battlefields to African streets.

26-03-2026

IDES OF MARCH:

ON THE LAST GREAT WAR™

Civilization is not a static process, but a journey of events in constant motion, shaped and placed by time—often without our awareness. Wars, regrettably, form part of that collective process of agreement and disagreement, of the search for improved general circumstances and living conditions within nations, in every era and place.

Yet always, behind the noise and the blood, one finds reason and justice—and also their opposites. And the last great war is no different: humanity will, for the first time in a long while, find itself at a civilizational turning point. For if irrationality, the dehumanization and destruction of nations, and the proliferation of diplomatic hypocrisy are deemed the best path forward, then all the peoples of the world will bear the consequences.

Meanwhile, around these same dates, it is expected that an American citizen who serves as head of the Vatican will visit one of the most corrupt countries on the planet—an act perceived by some as honoring corruption—while his own country once again appears unwilling to assume the historical responsibility of accepting that without truth, without justice, and without fraternity, one cannot lead a nation, much less the community of nations.

I. On the Movement of Civilization

Civilization is not an immobile stone in the current of time. It is a river, a flow, a perpetual tension between memory and future. Whoever observes with serenity will notice that peoples do not walk in a straight line but in spirals: they return to ancient questions with new instruments; they repeat errors under different names; they seek justice even when unaware of their own deviation.

Nothing human remains static. Institutions rise, reform, and decay. Borders shift. Languages blend. Symbols are reinterpreted. And yet the essence of human aspiration—order, dignity, security, transcendence—remains constant.

In this unfolding, wars have, regrettably, accompanied historical transit. They do not constitute the foundation of civilization, but they have been its most severe trials. Within them condense accumulated tensions, unresolved grievances, excessive ambitions, and also legitimate defenses of a broken order.

Power, when severed from its moral foundation, degenerates into domination. And domination, sooner or later, provokes resistance. Thus begins the cycle that leads to confrontation.

Remember always: power is not domination, but order. And he who sustains order sustains the world.

II. War as a Fractured Agreement

Every war is, at its deepest root, the failure of an agreement—not necessarily the failure of formal diplomacy, but the failure of interior concord among peoples, leaders, and institutions.

Nations seek to improve their conditions, protect their resources, guarantee their security, and affirm their identity. When these objectives are pursued within a framework of mutual respect, shared prosperity is born. When pursued through imposition or deceit, conflict germinates.

One must not forget that behind the thunder of armies stand ideas—some noble, others perverse. Behind spilled blood lie principles in dispute: justice and injustice, truth and falsehood, honor and petty calculation.

Wars do not arise solely from irrationality. They also emerge when reason is instrumentalized to justify the unjustifiable. History teaches that the dehumanization of the adversary precedes his destruction. When the other is no longer recognized as a bearer of dignity, the moral boundary collapses.

Yet even in the darkness of conflict, the possibility of restoring order endures. War reveals, with stark clarity, the moral structures of a civilization. If they are solid, suffering will not be in vain; if fragile, devastation will extend beyond the battlefield.

III. The Civilizational Turning Point

There are moments in history when humanity approaches a threshold. They are not frequent, but when they arrive, they alter the course of centuries.

A civilizational turning point is defined not only by the scale of material destruction, but by the reconfiguration of meaning. In such moments, nations must answer an essential question: what kind of order do they wish to sustain?

If irrationality becomes normalized, if the systematic destruction of entire communities is justified under strategic pretexts, if diplomatic hypocrisy replaces the pledged word, then the very fabric of civilization weakens.

When treaties become mere tactical instruments rather than commitments of honor, the international system transforms into a stage of permanent suspicion. In such a climate, every gesture is interpreted as a threat.

The last great war—whatever future name it may bear—will not be remembered solely for its battles, but for the moral examination it imposes upon humanity. Military victory will not suffice; ethical reconstruction will be required.

If peoples conclude that falsehood is a legitimate tool and indiscriminate destruction an acceptable resource, then all will suffer the consequences—victors and defeated alike.

IV. On Hypocrisy and Responsibility

In times of crisis, leaders are observed with greater severity. Their words acquire specific weight; their silences, profound meaning.

History shows that princes have often visited decadent courts not to reform them, but to secure immediate advantage. Such gestures, though cloaked in solemnity, erode public trust when perceived as complacency toward corruption or moral disorder.

Authentic leadership demands coherence between speech and action. One cannot proclaim the defense of truth while tolerating convenient falsehood. One cannot invoke justice while evading historical responsibility.

Authority that refuses to examine its own errors loses legitimacy. And a nation unwilling to recognize its internal failures can hardly offer guidance to the concert of nations.

Historical responsibility does not consist in humiliating oneself before the past, but in assuming it with clarity. Without truth, there is no reconciliation. Without justice, there is no stability. Without fraternity, there is no enduring international community.

V. The Restoration of Order

Every great war ends with reconstruction. But not every reconstruction is a true restoration.

True restoration requires a return to fundamental principles: human dignity, balance of power moderated by norms, primacy of the pledged word, respect for cultures, and clear limits on violence.

Institutions must be reformed to prevent the same errors from recurring under new forms. Alliances must be grounded in verifiable trust, not ephemeral interests. Education must strengthen critical sense and historical consciousness.

A sustainable international order is not imposed through perpetual force, but through legitimacy. And legitimacy arises from mutual recognition and consistent fulfillment of commitments.

VI. Mission and Continuity

Each generation receives an inheritance—not only territories and structures, but moral debts and unfinished tasks.

The mission of those who exercise authority is not to conquer for themselves, but to safeguard for the future. The worthy ruler understands that his power is transient, while the order he sustains must aspire to permanence.

The last great war—like all those before it—will be judged not only by its immediate results, but by the quality of the order it leaves behind. If from it emerges a civilization more conscious of its limits and responsibilities, the sacrifice will have produced instruction. If, on the contrary, it consolidates arrogance and indifference, it will have been a regression disguised as triumph.

History does not automatically absolve the victors. It examines the justice of their actions.

VII. Conclusion: The Judgment of Time

Time is the supreme judge of empires and republics. No power escapes its scrutiny. No discourse remains intact if it lacks moral foundation.

Humanity once again stands before the possibility of choosing between amplified destruction and shared responsibility. It is not the first time it faces such a dilemma—but each generation must resolve it for itself.

Remember: power is not domination, but order. And he who sustains order sustains the world.

Respectfully,

Javier Clemente Engonga

President, Digital Republic of Equatorial Guinea™

Commander and Chief Operating Officer Corruption Investigation Agency (C.I.A.)™ – Equatorial Guinea

Download File: IDES OF MARCH: ON THE LAST GREAT WAR™

THE COMPLETE TRUTH: GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE UNITED STATES–ISRAEL ATTACK ON IRAN AND THE ASSASSINATION OF THE IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER

February 28, 2026, marked a turning point in contemporary geopolitical history as a joint military operation between the United States and the State of Israel against the Islamic Republic of Iran was consolidated. The operation—known in Washington as Operation Epic Fury and in Tel Aviv as Roaring Lion—began with a coordinated series of airstrikes targeting military installations, command centers, strategic infrastructure, and critical nodes within Iran’s power apparatus. The declared objective from Washington and Tel Aviv was to dismantle capabilities identified as direct threats to their national security interests, particularly in relation to ballistic missile programs and alleged nuclear development capacities.

According to multiple international sources, including official statements from the United States government and the State of Israel, one of the most consequential outcomes of the operation was the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989. Khamenei embodied the continuity of the theocratic regime that has governed the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution. Confirmation of his death came from both official statements by the U.S. President and Iranian state agencies, which subsequently declared national mourning and organized formal state rituals in his memory, alongside reports of the deaths of several members of his family during the same strike.

The elimination of a sitting head of state through a foreign military operation represents an unprecedented development in 21st-century international relations. While the United States and Israel have previously conducted targeted operations against leaders of militant or paramilitary organizations, they had never directly eliminated the highest political and religious authority of a sovereign state. This action not only breaks established strategic paradigms, but fundamentally reshapes the balance of power in the Middle East.

The official narrative from Washington and Tel Aviv frames the operation as a necessary response to what they described as an unacceptable threat to regional and global security. The President of the United States stated that the removal of Khamenei creates “the greatest opportunity for the Iranian people to reclaim their country” and reduce the influence of a regime characterized as hostile and repressive. The Israeli Prime Minister emphasized that the strikes were also intended to neutralize structures that intelligence services claimed were facilitating the expansion of armed groups throughout the region.

However, beyond the strategic justifications presented by Western governments, the consequences of these events transcend the immediate military dimension and threaten to reconfigure the global order in profound and multidimensional ways.

🌍 1. Geopolitical Crisis and Risk of Generalized Escalation

From the outset, Iran’s response was forceful. Following the incursions, Iranian forces launched retaliatory missile and drone strikes against Israeli positions and U.S. bases located in allied Gulf states, including Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar, thereby expanding the theater of operations beyond Iranian territory. Iranian defense officials, alongside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, declared that the response would be “fierce and devastating,” intensifying an already volatile regional climate.

This cycle of action and retaliation introduces a serious risk of escalation that could draw in multiple state and non-state actors. Regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, as well as global actors including Russia and China, have expressed concern over the destabilizing potential of the situation. Within the United Nations Security Council, sharp tensions emerged as legal and international law implications of the strikes were debated.

One of the most tangible threats lies in the possible disruption or closure of critical logistical routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial percentage of global oil supply transits. Any prolonged interruption in this corridor would directly impact global energy markets, drive price increases, and destabilize economies dependent on imported energy resources.

🪖 2. A Power Vacuum in Iran and Internal Uncertainty

The death of a Supreme Leader such as Khamenei generates a power vacuum without precedent in modern Iranian history. He was not merely a political authority; he represented the theological and structural backbone of the regime. With his death, Iran faces a critical transitional moment. Under the Iranian Constitution, a provisional leadership council assumes authority until a permanent successor is designated.

This transition unfolds within a society already marked by deep tensions. In recent years, widespread protests driven by economic grievances and civil demands have shaken major Iranian cities, challenging the authoritarian structure of the regime. The convergence of weakened central leadership and societal dissatisfaction could lead to profound transformations—ranging from partial reform to internal confrontation.

Although certain segments of the population may view Khamenei’s death as an opportunity for political change, the reality remains complex. The Revolutionary Guard and entrenched institutional actors retain substantial power and may seek to consolidate authority rather than permit liberalization.

📉 3. Global Economic and Market Impacts

The economic consequences are already visible. Following the strikes, international oil and gas prices experienced significant volatility, reflecting concerns over global supply security. The world economy, still navigating inflationary pressures and fragmented trade systems, is not structurally prepared for a prolonged Middle Eastern crisis affecting energy markets.

Geopolitical uncertainty also influences financial markets. Investors tend to shift toward perceived safe-haven assets such as gold and sovereign bonds of advanced economies. Regional risk perception may accelerate capital flight from emerging markets, intensifying financial instability in vulnerable economies.

👥 4. Repercussions for Global Security and Strategic Alliances

The offensive against Iran and the assassination of its Supreme Leader establish a critical precedent in international relations. Direct military action by an alliance targeting the highest authority of a sovereign state redefines traditional parameters of sovereignty, legitimacy, and the use of force under international law. Some states will characterize the act as preventive defense; others will regard it as a violation of the foundational principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter, which restricts the use of force to clearly defined cases of self-defense.

Global alliances are entering a period of recalibration. Western governments defend their strategic position; Russia and China call for restraint and diplomatic engagement, warning against uncontrolled escalation. Multilateral and regional organizations have urged renewed diplomatic mechanisms before confrontation solidifies into permanent structural hostility.

🌐 5. Conclusion: A Historic Inflection Point

The joint military operation by the United States and Israel against Iran, and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, constitute an event with deep and lasting consequences. From the acceleration of a geopolitical crisis with the potential for broader expansion, to the internal restructuring of power within Iran, the implications extend far beyond the Persian front.

Global markets, diplomatic dynamics, and collective security frameworks are entering a transformative period that will demand strategic decision-making, multilateral dialogue, and a reassessment of classical notions of sovereignty, legitimacy, and international peace.

History does not move incrementally in moments like these.

It shifts.

And when the architecture of power shifts, the world must decide whether it moves toward fragmentation—or toward a new order.

“For more than twenty years, my answer has never changed: the secret of China’s success is a single, simple criterion — it places its smartest and most capable people at the top in every field of national life, so the nation can follow their lead. That is practical leadership. And that is why China keeps winning.”